AGI Talk Shakes Silicon Valley, But Fears Linger About Superpowered AI

The Rise and Fall of AGI Hype

Once upon a time, Silicon Valley was captivated by the promise of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). In early 2024, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confidently stated that his company had “AGI achieved internally.” This came after he previously claimed that AGI might be realized in 2025. His team even adopted the nickname “AGI Sherpas,” while former chief scientist Ilya Sutskever led researchers in chants of “Feel the AGI!” Microsoft, a major backer of OpenAI, published a paper in 2024 suggesting that GPT-4 exhibited “sparks of AGI.” Elon Musk founded xAI with the goal of building AGI, predicting it could arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Demis Hassabis of DeepMind also claimed the world was “on the cusp” of AGI.

Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, pledged to develop “full general intelligence” for future products. Dario Amodei of Anthropic, though skeptical of the term AGI, suggested powerful AI could emerge by 2027. Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO, predicted AGI would arrive within three to five years. However, the enthusiasm surrounding AGI has since waned, with a noticeable shift toward pragmatism over utopian visions.

A Shift in Focus

The AGI fever is now fading, marking a significant change in tone among tech leaders. At a CNBC appearance this summer, Altman dismissed AGI as “not a super-useful term.” In the New York Times, Schmidt urged Silicon Valley to focus on practical technology rather than chasing superhuman AI. AI pioneer Andrew Ng and U.S. AI czar David Sacks both called AGI “overhyped.”

The confusion around what AGI actually means contributes to its growing skepticism. While most agree that AGI stands for “artificial general intelligence,” definitions vary widely. Some see it as AI rivaling human brain complexity, while others define it as systems capable of performing any cognitive task a competent human can. OpenAI’s definition emphasizes autonomous systems that can outperform humans at economically valuable work.

The Reality of AGI

Despite the hype, progress in AI development has not met expectations. The rollout of OpenAI’s GPT-5 model in August 2024 was underwhelming, offering only incremental improvements rather than the breakthrough many anticipated. Shane Legg, who helped coin the term AGI, noted that GPT-5 lacks real understanding, continuous learning, and grounded experience.

Altman’s retreat from AGI language is particularly notable given the company’s founding mission. OpenAI was built on AGI hype, raising billions in capital and forming a partnership with Microsoft. A clause in their agreement restricts Microsoft’s access to future technology if OpenAI declares AGI achievement. Microsoft, having invested over $13 billion, reportedly wants to remove this clause and has even considered walking away from the deal.

A Healthy Vibe Shift

Many view the shift away from AGI rhetoric as a positive development. Shay Boloor, chief market strategist at Futurum Equities, called it “very healthy,” emphasizing that markets reward execution over vague narratives. Others argue that the focus is moving from a monolithic AGI fantasy to domain-specific “superintelligences.”

Daniel Saks of Landbase believes the future lies in decentralized, domain-specific models achieving superhuman performance in particular fields. Christopher Symons of Lirio argues that the AGI term is unhelpful, as it diverts resources from more concrete applications where AI can benefit society immediately.

Continued Debate and Concerns

While the AGI narrative is less prominent, the mission and phrase haven’t disappeared entirely. Executives at Anthropic and DeepMind still refer to themselves as “AGI-pilled,” though the term is debated. Some see it as belief in AGI’s imminent arrival, while others view it as the ongoing improvement of AI models.

Some critics argue that the hedging around AGI is concerning. Former OpenAI researcher Steven Adler warned that some companies aim to build systems smarter than humans, calling for serious attention to the risks. Max Tegmark of the Future of Life Institute accuses AI leaders of changing their tune to avoid regulation, comparing it to a cocaine salesman downplaying the drug’s effects.

The Future of AI

Whether referred to as AGI or another term, the hype may fade, but the real questions about AI’s trajectory remain. With so much at stake—money, jobs, security, and safety—the conversation about where this race leads is far from over.