The Future of Historians in the Age of AI
The idea that historians might be among the most vulnerable professions to artificial intelligence (AI) has sparked a mix of skepticism, concern, and curiosity. According to a recent study by Microsoft, historians ranked second on a list of jobs most at risk of being replaced by AI. This revelation came as a surprise to many, especially those within the field who see their work as deeply human and irreplaceable.
Sarah Weicksel, a former historian at the Smithsonian Institution and now the head of the American Historical Association, first learned about the ranking at an industry conference. When someone joked about historians being replaced by AI, the comment carried more weight than it seemed. “It’s a fundamental misunderstanding of what we do,” Weicksel said. “Historians don’t just memorize dates or facts—they interpret the past, analyze its meaning, and contextualize events in ways that no machine can replicate.”
The Microsoft study, titled “The Occupational Implications of Generative AI,” analyzed how AI interacts with various job tasks. It found that 91% of a historian’s work could be partially or fully addressed by AI queries. However, the researchers emphasized that this does not mean AI will replace historians entirely. Instead, they noted that while AI can assist with certain aspects of historical research, it lacks the nuanced understanding required for deep analysis and interpretation.
AI and the Fear of Job Displacement
The fear that AI could displace white-collar workers is growing louder, with corporate leaders and AI companies often highlighting the technology’s potential to automate tasks traditionally performed by humans. This has led to headlines asking, “Are there any AI-safe jobs left?” The answer, according to experts, is not clear-cut.
Matthew Martin, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, pointed out that while concerns are valid, there is currently little evidence of AI significantly impacting employment. “The fear is that AI is going to take everyone’s job,” he said. “But it’s a little early to say that.”
Despite these concerns, many historians remain confident in their profession. Their skepticism is rooted in both their professional expertise and historical precedent. Throughout the years, the humanities have faced similar doubts, with critics questioning the practical value of degrees like history. For example, California Governor Ronald Reagan once criticized the funding of “intellectual curiosity” over more practical fields. Yet, despite such challenges, history remains a popular major, and recent graduates have lower unemployment rates than those in computer science, according to the New York Federal Reserve Bank.
The Role of Historians in the Modern Workforce
Historians are far from being limited to academia. Many find roles in unexpected places, such as the National Security Agency, government agencies, and even corporate environments like the American Girl doll company. Brendan Gillis, a historian involved with the American Historical Association, described his peers as “the utility infielders of the workforce baseball team.” They adapt, contribute, and fill essential roles across industries.
Weicksel acknowledges that AI will change how historians work but insists it won’t replace them. “Generative AI can’t replace expertise,” she said. “It can’t truly understand information and contextualize it the way historians do.” She recalled advice from her PhD adviser: “You don’t need to remember every date—what you need to know is how to interpret events in a broader context.”
How the Study Was Conducted
The Microsoft study evaluated job tasks using the O*NET database, which categorizes occupations based on their responsibilities. Researchers compared these tasks with data from 200,000 conversations between users and Microsoft’s Bing Copilot AI. They looked for instances where AI successfully completed similar tasks.
According to the findings, jobs most at risk included interpreters and translators, followed by historians, passenger attendants, sales representatives, writers, and customer service representatives. On the other end of the spectrum were jobs involving physical labor, such as dishwashers, roofers, and embalmers. The occupation least affected by AI was the dredge operator.
Interestingly, the O*NET database itself lists historians as having a “bright outlook” with expected growth in the coming years. This suggests that, despite the concerns, the demand for historical expertise is likely to remain strong.
The Broader Implications of AI on Employment
Mark Muro, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, highlighted the complexity of predicting AI’s impact on jobs. He warned against making drastic career decisions based on current projections. “It would be precipitous to massively shift your pathway based on current information,” he said. “But there’s also no room for complacency.”
Muro also pointed to the history of technological disruption, such as the rise of ATMs in the 1970s. While ATMs initially reduced the need for bank tellers, they ultimately led to more jobs as banks expanded and tellers transitioned to other roles. This pattern may repeat with AI, though the long-term effects remain uncertain.
A Confident Outlook for Historians
Despite the uncertainties, Weicksel remains optimistic about the future of her profession. “Don’t worry,” she said. “We’re not going anywhere.” History, she believes, will continue to play a vital role in shaping our understanding of the world.
As AI continues to evolve, the challenge for historians—and all professionals—will be to adapt, embrace new tools, and maintain the human elements that make their work indispensable. In the end, history will be the judge.
0 comments:
Ikutan Komentar